A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."